欧派家居集团股份有限公司 2017 年年度报告

(1)家具行业持续稳定增长,进入成熟发展阶段
中国家具行业经过三十多年的发展,已经形成了一定的产业规模,培育了较成熟的家具配套 产业,出现了一些具有国际先进水平的家具明星企业。2011-2015年,中国家具业平均增速为15.84%, 家具行业平均主营业务利润率为6.18%,利润总额平均增速为18.43%。
根据米兰(意大利)国际工业研究中心(CSIL)统计,2016年我国家具制造行业主营业务收 入8559.5亿元,同比增长9%,产量共计79464.15万件,同比增长3.3%。同时根据国家统计局数据, 2011年到2016年我国家具制造业主营业务收入年复合增长率约为11.4%,利润总额年复合增长率达 13.2%。我国家具行业已经进入成熟发展阶段,行业竞争激烈,整体需求较为稳定,未来几年家具 行业呈现稳定增长态势。

整体家居企业虽然发展迅速,但成品家具目前 仍然占据家具市场70%以上的份额,整体家居仅占比不到20%,市场份额仍然较小。

(3)整体家居行业消费升级,销售渠道下沉明显;随着城市化的深入以及80、90后成为社会主体,整体家居消费升级趋势明显。以橱柜为例, 根据中华厨柜网的数据,26-45岁人群为厨柜消费主体,占比达到81%。在地域方面,橱柜销售渠 道下沉明显,中华橱柜网数据显示,2016年二三线城市购买整体橱柜占比达到61%,较2015年提高 6个百分点

公司主要营业收入来自整体橱柜和整体衣柜。随着消费升级和城市化进程的加快,高品质整 体橱柜市场需求也逐渐增长。但是从行业集中度从看,目前龙头份额依然较低,排名前7位的企业, 如按照销量口径计算,其市场占有率合计仅7%;如按主营业务收入口径计算,其市场占有率合计 仅22.1%,龙头企业未来还有较大的提升空间

从2016年开始浙江、上海、 江苏等地颁布政令,在2020至2025年前“毛坯房”将逐步退出房地产市场,新建住宅实现100%“全 装修和成品交付”。作为地产后周期行业,家具行业与地产之间的相关性逐渐减弱,二手房和翻新房正在替代新房成为家具行业市场需求的主要来源。

海外家具市场集中化趋势明显,欧日韩三个地区排名第一的家具公司市场占有率都在10%以上, 龙头效果显著。近年来,国内整体家居行业集中度呈现稳步上升的态势,但仍然处于较低水平

欧派家居集团于2017年3月16日向社会公众投资者定价发行人民币普通股(A 股)4151 万股,每股面值人民币 1.00 元,每股发行认购价格为人民币 50.08 元,募集资金总额为 207,882.08 万元,扣除承销费用人民币 7,300.00 万元(保荐费用、律师费用、审计费用等发行 费用尚未扣除),实际到账募集资金为 200,582.08 万元。

经销商专卖店和公司 直营店构成的销售网络已拥有门店超过 6000 家、超过 4 万名的专业设计人员和服务人员。

大批量采用以不含甲 醛的 MDI 生态胶生产的人造板来提升产品环保要求,引入处于行业前端的激光封边技术,实现板 材与封边带无缝黏合;公司产品的关键五金大批量从奥地利百隆和德国海蒂诗采购,另外与德国 ZIMMER 公司共同研发了一款滑动顺畅、推拉省力的新型上下同步阻尼移门滑轮,该项技术目前 处于行业领先水平。现拥有清远、天津、无锡、成都(建设中)四大生产基地,形成辐射华南、 华北、华东、华西的全国性生产能力,生产规模雄踞亚洲。

周黑鸭预计利润降30%

預期截至二零一八年十二月三十一日止年度本公司擁 有人應佔淨利潤較截至二零一七年十二月三十一日止年度同期下跌約 30% 左右。該 減少主要由於(1)截至二零一八年十二月三十一日止年度的原材料成本較截至二零 一七年十二月三十一日止年度上升;(2)截至二零一八年十二月三十一日止年度的 門店經營利潤率較截至二零一七年十二月三十一日止年度下跌;及(3)自二零一八 年四月起河北周黑鴨食品工業園有限公司投產的折舊及能耗成本的上升等。

$3 以下会有机会

David Webb

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-02/the-20-a-year-stock-picker-who-wishes-his-edge-would-disappear?srnd=premium-asia

http://webb-site.com/

David Webb quit his job at 33, got rich investing in Hong Kong。Now 53 and comfortably rich, he’s OK with giving away his research。his total wealth — have swelled to about $170 million from $30 million in 2003

Over the past 20 months, he has advised readers of his widely followed website to avoid more than 75 of the city’s publicly traded companies — several of which subsequently became targets of the largest-ever raid by Hong Kong’s securities regulator. Stocks on his “not to own’’ lists have lost $16 billion of their value since he warned against buying them.


Here’s how Webb describes the basics of his investment strategy:

  • Owns about 35 stocks at a time, with an average holding period of “five-plus’’ years
  • Long only, never short
  • Prefers large stakes in small companies and isn’t afraid to take an activist role: “If you are going to be a minority shareholder, it’s better to be a big one’’
  • Doesn’t use leverage
  • Looks for businesses that are well-governed and undervalued
  • Reads the regulatory filings –- almost all of them
  • Avoids large caps
  • Refuses to manage outside money: “It’s a lot of hassle’’

老唐的分众传媒

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/85mPgiYVRfoEbUgflgwPpg

梳理分众传媒6月9日

手机屏对于分众而言,即可能是竞争对手,也可能是合作伙伴。分众正通过技术升级,与手机屏在楼宇电视覆盖范围产生互动,更好地利用红包、折扣券等多种形式提升楼宇电视的广告价值——这种具有 Wi-Fi、 iBeacon、人脸识别和 ApplePay 功能的新一代电梯电视互动大屏在2016年底研制成功。

2017 年,公司在一线城市已基本完成更换。 2018 年,公司正陆续在二三线城市更新换代,顺带将以前 40×50cm的电梯海报也更新为 60×80cm的大版。

昨天还看到一位上海的基金经理离世,年仅46岁(和老唐同龄),看新闻说他管理的产品累计亏损74%,2018年度亏损65%。

Daikin to double India capacity with third air-conditioner plant

Daikin Industries aims to open a third Indian factory for home air conditioners in 2021, investing 10 billion yen ($88.4 million) to double its annual production capacity in the rapidly growing market to 2 million units. [Darkin: Market cap: 32.26B(USD); NI 1.7B; PE: 19; dividend: 1.16%; Rev: 20.66B; Net ratio: 8.23%; E:12.2B; RoE: 14%]

The manufacturer targets sales of 100 billion yen in India for the year through March 2021, double its fiscal 2017 tally.

India’s home air-conditioner market is expected to reach 7.47 million units in 2023, surging by over 70% from 2017 while the global market grows just 20%, according to British research firm Euromonitor International. [still small market compared to China which has 80m units sold locally in 2017]

Daikin, LG and Voltas — part of the Tata Group, India’s biggest conglomerate — each command shares of around 15% to 20% in the country, with the Japanese player claiming the top spot by sales in 2015. Other competitors in India include U.S. company Carrier, as well as Japan’s Panasonic and the Hitachi group.

Jawa reduced imports from Thailand and boosted local production to lower costs, letting Daikin launch ordinary household units priced about 20% below previous models at between 32,000 and 38,000 rupees ($450 to $540). Such units enjoy support from consumers despite costing about 30% more than Voltas’ products and 10% more than those of LG. The South Korean company’s two Indian plants have run at full capacity since last year, and it expects to produce about 1.6 million units in 2018.

Despite the lower prices for Voltas and LG, Daikin Senior Executive Officer Yoshihiro Mineno claims the cost cuts let the company “set prices in a range.” But as the Indian market expands, customers may grow increasingly sensitive to prices.

Richard Branson launches $3m challenge to reinvent the air conditioner

Its power consumption at full load must not exceed 700 W and it mustn’t consume more than 14 L (3.7 gal) of water per day. 
A detailed technical application then needs to be submitted by August, with 10 finalists handed US$200,000 to build working prototypes in November. The final winner will be awarded $1 million in November or December 2020.

Can India Afford to Cool Down?

The world’s fastest-growing market for air conditioners sparks a search for power-saving strategies that could help all developing countries.

Electricity consumption from air conditioning in India is expected to multiply 30 times from 2010 to 2030 if it isn’t made more efficient.

The 900 million residential air conditioners in the world today are expected to rise to between 2.5 billion and 3.7 billion room units by 2050. If little is done to improve efficiency, air conditioning will account for 40% of global growth in energy consumed in buildings by 2050—an amount of energy equivalent to all the electricity used today in the U.S. and Germany combined, according to the IEA.  [50m-87m per year, net increase]

Now EESL is working with companies such as Mahindra Automotive, which has ordered 1,100 of the super-high efficiency air conditioners to replace aging units in its offices. The company expects a 15%-30% energy savings over the next 18 months

It remains to be seen whether EESL can drive down the price of super-efficient air conditioners as far as it did with high-efficiency lighting. Unlike with light bulbs, ACs are considered a luxury item for the rich, one governments are wary of being seen as directly subsidizing. 

3/11/2018

3/11/2018 CMC Sapiens A$ CMC CX A$ A Share ¥ others ¥ Amount-¥/$ %
农行H                       5,100               25,296 0.24%
CHF/TRY                       5,320               26,387 0.25%
神华H                    15,500               76,880 0.72%
复星H                    91,000         22,600             563,456 5.26%
长城H                    23,300         88,000              111,243             663,291 6.19%
IGG                    37,000              235,463             418,983 3.91%
PAX Global                    74,000             367,040 3.43%
四环 H                  139,000             689,440 6.44%
融创中国H                    12,300               61,008 0.57%
腾讯 H                    15,500              242,200             319,080 2.98%
兖州煤业H                    19,000               94,240 0.88%
重庆银行H            7,500               37,200 0.35%
Bellway         27,200             134,912 1.26%
招行H         10,800               53,568 0.50%
高阳H         21,000             104,160 0.97%
Hong Kong 50         23,000             114,080 1.06%
Hong Kong ChinaH         79,300             393,328 3.67%
聚美         12,300               61,008 0.57%
民生银行H            9,200               45,632 0.43%
Persimmon         21,400             106,144 0.99%
TRY/EUR         12,000               59,520 0.56%
格力电器          3,040,112         3,040,112 28.38%
分众传媒              267,415             267,415 2.50%
美的集团          1,788,490         1,788,490 16.70%
贵州茅台              581,903             581,903 5.43%
五粮液              295,295             295,295 2.76%
海螺水泥              324,206             324,206 3.03%
洋河股份              100,680             100,680 0.94%
total:                  437,020       334,300          6,886,327                –       10,712,074
loan -1,142,349

周一咏春拳 , 盐水仓

看到dereck的盐水浸泡仓,能够提高冥想的效果,他说是从Australian sports institution 买来的。水里按照死海盐水的浓度比例放了epsom salt。Maybe I will give it a go in future.

练习手臂像侧面升直又回龙到胸前。统一动作的使用。勾脖颈。菱形攻防。手搓对方再扣后颈,肘 向下用力,像木人桩的动作。

搪手,一个往前小小的力。肩关节打开,在小圆周上运动。肘关节推动前臂,仿佛上肢内空有能量传输到指尖。永远往前,小于对方抵抗的力,但又不collaps.

溃疡今天完全好了,上个星期六就好的差不多了,前后一共历时一个星期。

周一咏春课

摊手,从脚底往上到肩到手。前面阻力不存在。移动手到想要的位置和方向。

出拳。从后脚到前脚转身, Settle down. 像旋转的水流沉静下来;就像寻桥的套路动作。。注意背部的圆盘力量传送,从左肩到右肩到右拳。

刀的练习。两种步伐。身体正面两角走,45度侧方。另一种是从正方到侧方,但是可以连续动作练习。

棍的练习。推棍拉棍。先动身体重心再动手。推拉购物车。

脚踩汽车轮胎。伸直脚。髋骨落放松。

寻求套路动作。左右走的时候。感觉在推啦身子边上的一根直棍子。以保证上身边平直不弯曲。就像一摞书一样,堆在一起之后只需要移动,最下面一本。

永春私人一对一课,35刀。

移动球/木棒/拳头-移动身体,不是移动对方。对方不存在。

训练有各种各样的角度和方法。他们看起来互相独立,但以后都可以连起来。比如。移动。转身。出拳。做同样的动作,但不同的想法和关注点就是不同的训练。

打击拳击袋。袋子要晃动,而不是退后。手的动作很小,剩下的全是身体。把半个身体的水从手臂晃到拳上放出去。

双击练习,身体不动,但感觉力量从下往上传递。

练小念头。要意念从脚起到髋部到丹田到胸部到肩到肘到手。但只有上肢在运动,其他的部分都不动。如抛和接住小球时的全身动作。

重心在丹田和胸口上下运动,配合手的上下动作。做赤手时,把对方的两手扣到丹田的方向,然后移动重心。后退或转身,如弓拉满弦,反弹出去。in control

从a点到b点,忘掉中间的过程。抬脚前踏,上半身不晃动。

~~~~

左边口腔内的溃疡还没好,右边舌根部好像又长了个溃疡。

stoicism,他们好像都很长寿

as social beings, the path to happiness for humans is found in accepting this moment as it presents itself, by not allowing ourselves to be controlled by our desire for pleasure or our fear of pain, by using our minds to understand the world around us and to do our part in nature’s plan, and by working together and treating others fairly and justly.

Zeno of Citium c. 334 – c. 262 BC, 72

Socrates (/ˈsɒkrətiːz/ c.470 – 399 BC, 71

Heraclitus of Ephesus (/ˌhɛrəˈklaɪtəs/ c.535 – c. 475 BC, 60

Plato (/ˈpleɪtoʊ/ 428/427 or 424/423[b] – 348/347 BC), 80

Aristotle (/ˈærɪˌstɒtəl/ 384–322 BC, 62

Marcus Aurelius (/ɔːˈriːliəs/; 26 April 121 – 17 March 180 AD, 59

Seneca the Younger (c. 4 BC – AD 65), 68

Epictetus (/ˌɛpɪkˈtiːtəs/ c. 55 – 135 AD 80

Modern Stoicism

Philippa Ruth Foot, FBA (/ˈfɪlɪpə ˈfʊt/; née Bosanquet; 3 October 1920 – 3 October 2010) , 90

Alasdair Chalmers MacIntyre (/ˈæləstər/; born 12 January 1929) is a Scottish philosopher

Martha Craven Nussbaum (/ˈnʊsbɔːm/; born May 6, 1947) is an American philosopher

Victor Frankl

Lawrence C. Becker (born 1939) is an American philosopher

One of the key sites is the Modern Stoicism website, which harbors the Stoicism Today blog and hosts the Annual Stoic Week (online) and Stoicon (offline) events.[10] Another important place is the New Stoa, which was founded in May 1996 and is arguably the first lasting stoic community on the internet. Three key podcasts talking about Stoicism applied to modern thought are the Stoic Solutions Podcast hosted by Justin Vacula[11], The Practical Stoic Podcast hosted by Simon Drew [12] and Steve Karafit’s The Sunday Stoic [13]

口腔内侧溃疡第二天。是鼓出来的那种会咬到。可能是吃了辣的,比如酸辣汤对面。还有辣酱。

咏春心得。

打木人桩要慢,用身体,保持身体和目标的距离,要有练吃手的感觉。

赤手个人练习法。左右转,前后庄。

寻桥运动三个方向。脚上下动。腰左右动。手前后动。相像力从脚底起到腰旁,再到胸,再倒手。身体先向上再向旁边。两个方向的力,然后再自然形成合力。

重心移动练习抱着球。在胸前或当天处。要移动球,而不是移动自己。

用橡皮筋连接手腕和肩部。把注意力放在拉升橡皮筋上。目的是忘记其他手部分肌肉的运动,彻底放松。不用伸手出很远。

练套路时。要彻底放松,想象力在体内的流动,再观察身体各个部位的运动。想象这个动作在不同境况下的使用和不同的目的。但是他们都会是相同的动作,相同的感觉。