You must imagine Sisyphus happy.
Tail-end events are all that matter.
Once you go through something like that, you realize that the tail-end consequences – the low-probability, high-impact events – are all that matter. In investing, the average consequences of risk make up most of the daily news headlines. But the tail-end consequences of risk – like pandemics, and depressions – are what make the pages of history books. They’re all that matter. They’re all you should focus on.
Ric Kayne point out that “95% of all financial history happens within two standard deviations of normal, and everything interesting happens outside of two standard deviations.”
最优秀的特质是“干一行爱一行”；Whatever you do, try to do it happily and seriously. [enjoy life, save energy]
Being angry costs a lot of energy, which means we have run out of other more efficient methods.
More important than the will to win is the will to prepare – read
未料胜，先料不胜; 先胜而后求战：如果下跌50%, …
Temet Nosce: 元认知，内观；自律；thick skin；要追求伟大就别害羞；做个混球
Something bigger than yourself: 1.invest for people who trust me; 2. Write to teach people
Stay hungry，Stay foolish
Success is not final, failure is not fatal. It is the courage to continue that counts. — Winston Churchill
These inner battles have actually trained you for this very moment.
You are strong because you are imperfect. You are wise because you have doubts.
Don‘t Rush，Don’t Push, Don’t Wish.
Every decade or so, dark clouds will fill the economic skies, and they will briefly rain gold. When downpours of that sort occur, it’s imperative that we rush outdoors carrying washtubs, not teaspoons.
This table offers the strongest argument I can muster against ever using borrowed money to own stocks. There is simply no telling how far stocks can fall in a short period. Even if your borrowings are small and your positions aren’t immediately threatened by the plunging market, your mind may well become rattled by scary headlines and breathless commentary. And an unsettled mind will not make good decisions.
In the next 53 years our shares (and others) will experience declines resembling those in the table. No one can tell you when these will happen. The light can at any time go from green to red without pausing at yellow.
When major declines occur, however, they offer extraordinary opportunities to those who are not handicapped by debt. That’s the time to heed these lines from Kipling’s If:
“If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs . . .
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting . . .
If you can think – and not make thoughts your aim . . .
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you . . .
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it.”
Though markets are generally rational, they occasionally do crazy things. Seizing the opportunities then offered does not require great intelligence, a degree in economics or a familiarity with Wall Street jargon such as alpha and beta. What investors then need instead is an ability to both disregard mob fears or enthusiasms and to focus on a few simple fundamentals. A willingness to look unimaginative for a sustained period – or even to look foolish – is also essential.
Stick with big, “easy” decisions and eschew activity